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Pre-Crime: People Will Soon Be Arrested For Thinking About Committing A Crime

A pre-crime system called Beware, for example, is capable of rating citizens of Fresno, California, as posing a high, medium or low level of threat. Press accounts say the system amasses data not only on past crimes but on web searches, property records and social networking posts.

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Being Arrested For The Crime You Have Not Yet Committed

Computers are getting pretty good at predicting the future. In many cases they do it better than people. That’s why Amazon uses them to figure out what you’re likely to buy, how Netflix knows what you might want to watch, the way meteorologists come up with accurate 10-day forecasts.

Now a team of scientists has demonstrated that a computer can outperform human judges in predicting who will commit a violent crime. In a paper published last month, they described how they built a system that started with people already arrested for domestic violence, then figured out which of them would be most likely to commit the same crime again.

The technology could potentially spare victims from being injured, or even killed. It could also keep the least dangerous offenders from going to jail unnecessarily. And yet, there’s something unnerving about using machines to decide what should happen to people. If targeted advertising misfires, nobody’s liberty is at stake.

For two decades, police departments have used computers to identify times and places where crimes are more likely to occur, guiding the deployment of officers and detectives. Now they’re going another step: using vast data sets to identify individuals who are criminally inclined. They’re doing this with varying levels of transparency and scientific testing. A pre-crime system called Beware, for example, is capable of rating citizens of Fresno, California, as posing a high, medium or low level of threat. Press accounts say the system amasses data not only on past crimes but on web searches, property records and social networking posts.

Critics are warning that the new technology had been rushed into use without enough public discussion. One question is precisely how the software works — it’s the manufacturer’s trade secret. Another is whether there’s scientific evidence that such technology works as advertised.

By contrast, the recent paper on the system that forecasts domestic violence lays out what it can do and how well it can do it.

One of the creators of that system, University of Pennsylvania statistician Richard Berk, said he only works with publicly available data on people who have already been arrested. The system isn’t scooping up and crunching data on ordinary citizens, he said, but is making the same forecasts that judges or police officers previously had to make when it came time to decide whether to detain or release a suspect.

The Technology Shown Us In Minority Report Has Already Come True:

He started working on crime forecasting more than a decade ago, and by 2008 had created a computerized system that beat the experts in picking which parolees were most likely to reoffend. He used a machine learning system – feeding a computer lots of different kinds of data until it discovered patterns that it could use to make predictions, which then can be tested against known data.

Machine learning doesn’t necessarily yield an algorithm that people can understand. Users know which parameters get considered but not how the machine uses them to get its answers.

In the domestic violence paper, published in February in the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, Berk and Penn psychologist Susan Sorenson looked at data from about 100,000 cases, all occurring between 2009 and 2013. Here, too, they used a machine learning system, feeding a computer data on age, sex, zip code, age at first arrest, and a long list of possible previous charges for such things as drunk driving, animal mistreatment, and firearms crimes. They did not use race, though Berk said the system isn’t completely race blind because some inferences about race can be drawn from a person’s zip code.

The researchers used about two-thirds of the data to “train” the system, giving the machine access to the input data as well as the outcome – whether or not these people were arrested a second time for domestic violence. The other third of the data they used to test the system, giving the computer only the information that a judge could know at arraignment, and seeing how well the system predicted who would be arrested for domestic violence again.

It would be easy to reduce the number of repeat offenses to zero by simply locking up everyone accused of domestic violence, but there’s a cost to jailing people who aren’t going to be dangerous, said Berk. Currently, about half of those arrested for domestic violence are released, he said. The challenge he and Sorenson faced was to continue to release half but pick a less dangerous half. The result: About 20 percent of those released by judges were later arrested for the same crime. Of the computer’s choices, it was only 10 percent.

Berk and Sorensen are currently working with the Philadelphia police, he said, to adapt the machine learning system to predict which households are most at risk of domestic violence. Those, he said, can be targeted with extra supervision.

The parole system has already been implemented in Philadelphia. Parolees in the city are assigned to high-, medium- and low-risk groups by a machine-learning system, allowing parole officers to focus most of their attention on the high-risk cases.

One downside might be a more one-dimensional decision-making process. Several years ago, when I wrote an article on the parole system for the Philadelphia Inquirer, I learned that some parole officers found the system constraining. They said that they could have a bigger impact by spending more time with low-risk offenders who were open to accepting help in getting their lives together – getting off drugs, applying for jobs, or getting a high school degree.

Their concern was that their bosses would put too much faith in the system and too little in them. This echoes the problem Berk says worries him: That people will put too much trust the technology. If a system hasn’t been through scientific testing, then skepticism is in order. And even those that have been shown to beat human judgment are far from perfect. Machine learning could give crime fighters a source of information in making decisions, but at this stage it would be a mistake for them to let it make the decisions for them. source

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China

Here On Day 151 Of World War Trump, China Is Now The Official Supplier Of Shoulder-Fired Air Defense Missile Launchers To Iran As The Conflict Greatly Expands

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China Moves To Rearm Iran With 400 Shoulder-Fired Missiles As World War Trump Widens Into A Dangerous Global Confrontation With America In The Crosshairs

What you are watching is no ordinary weapons sale, it’s the widening of the Middle East war into a confrontation between the world’s great powers. According to Reuters, Iran could soon receive as many as 400 Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 shoulder-fired air-defense systems in a deal worth up to $70 million. America and Israel spent months blasting holes through Iran’s defenses, and now Communist China appears ready to help Tehran fill those holes with hundreds of portable, heat-seeking missiles. Washington drops the bombs, Beijing replaces the weapons, and Iran prepares for the next round. This is how a regional war begins mutating into something much larger and infinitely more dangerous. Welcome to World War Trump where things have been going very badly, and getting worse by the day.

“Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet:” Ezekiel 38:5 (KJB)

Do not underestimate these weapons because they are carried on a man’s shoulder. A fixed radar installation can be photographed by satellites, targeted by coordinates and destroyed with a precision strike. A MANPADS team, or Man-portable air-defense system, can hide inside a building, travel in an ordinary vehicle, emerge without warning and disappear immediately after firing. These missiles will not make Iran’s airspace impenetrable or bring down high-flying B-2 bombers, but rather transform the lower skies over Iran into a deadly ambush zone for helicopters, drones, surveillance platforms and low-flying aircraft. Every airbase, missile facility, refinery and command center could suddenly be protected by launchers that American planners cannot easily locate or eliminate.

This is the terrible arithmetic of America’s unfinished war, otherwise known as World War Trump. The United States expends million-dollar missiles and billion-dollar aircraft to destroy Iran’s defenses, while China helps Tehran replace a dangerous layer of those defenses for a comparatively modest $60–70 million. Iran does not have to defeat the United States in the air; it merely has to make every mission more expensive, every flight more dangerous and every strike more politically costly. Tehran is learning from every American attack, dispersing its weapons, hardening its facilities and purchasing exactly the systems needed to complicate the next assault. The longer this war continues, the less Iran resembles the vulnerable target struck at its beginning.

Then comes the China factor. Beijing does not have to fire directly upon American forces to wage war against American power. It can arm Iran, supply dual-use technology, sustain Tehran’s military industry and force Washington to drain its own stockpiles thousands of miles from home. If the reported shipment travels through Pakistan and into Iran, it would reveal the emergence of an eastern military-supply corridor operating beyond Washington’s control. China, of course, has denied the report and Pakistan denies involvement, but if the delivery occurs, the strategic message will be unmistakable: America’s enemies are beginning to replenish one another, the nightmare does not end at Iran’s borders. Portable missiles can be hidden, transported and transferred far more easily than large air-defense batteries. If even a fraction of these weapons eventually reached Iranian proxy forces, American troops, Israeli aircraft and civilian aviation throughout the region could face a whole new level of danger. Once these systems are dispersed, tracking every launcher will become virtually impossible, and Iran will have gone from surviving to thriving. How can that be? Because your King James Bible declares that Iran is a major power in the last days, that’s how.

Jesus warned that the closing days would be marked by “wars and rumours of wars,” and we are watching the machinery of those wars being assembled before our eyes. America strikes Iran. China rearms Iran. Russia strengthens its relationships across the East. Israel prepares for another attack, while every ceasefire becomes merely a pause to reload. These are not isolated headlines anymore, they are pieces of a rapidly forming global alignment. World War Trump has lit the end times fuse, the weapons are moving, and the nations, and the kingdoms, are busy choosing their sides. Exactly how the prophets say that it will be in the last days.

Now The End Begins is your front line defense against the rising tide of darkness in the last Days before the Rapture of the Church

When you contribute to this fundraising effort, you are helping us to do what the Lord called us to do. The money you send in goes primarily to the overall daily operations of this site. When people ask for Bibles, we send them out at no charge. When people write in and say how much they would like gospel tracts but cannot afford them, we send them a box at no cost to them for either the tracts or the shipping, no matter where they are in the world. We have a Gospel Billboard program. We are now broadcasting Bible studies, Podcasts and a Sunday Service 5 times a week, thanks to your generous donations. All this is possible because YOU pray for us, YOU support us, and YOU give so we can continue growing.

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But whatever you do, don’t do nothing. Time is short and we need your help right now. The Lord has given us an open door with a tremendous ‘course’ for us to fulfill that will create an excellent experience at the Judgement Seat of Christ. Please pray for our efforts, and if the Lord leads you to donate, be as generous as possible. The war is REAL, the battle HOT and the time is SHORTTO THE FIGHT!!!

“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJB)

“Thank you very much!” – Geoffrey, editor-in-chief, NTEB

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The Terrible Truth That Donald Trump Won’t Tell You Is That His Department Of War Has Fired Years Worth Of Munitions In Weeks, Leaving America Exposed

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Donald Trump Says America Is Stronger Than Ever, But The Pentagon’s Emptying Missile Stockpiles Tell A Far More Dangerous Story About The Nation’s Readiness For A Larger War

The United States may still possess the most technologically advanced military force on earth, but advanced weapons mean very little when the magazines holding them are being emptied faster than American factories can refill them. That is the terrifying reality behind America’s growing munitions crisis. Patriot interceptors, Tomahawk cruise missiles, air-defense weapons and long-range precision munitions can take months—or even years—to replace, yet they can be fired by the hundreds in a matter of days. America has built a military designed to win spectacular opening battles, but it is increasingly questionable whether that military has the industrial depth necessary to sustain a long and brutal war.

“There is no king saved by the multitude of an host: a mighty man is not delivered by much strength.” Psalm 33:16 (KJB)

For decades, Washington behaved as though the United States would always have unlimited time, unlimited money and uncontested access to the global supply chain. Factories were closed, production lines were reduced, skilled workers disappeared and critical components were outsourced overseas. Meanwhile, politicians continued sending weapons around the world while assuring the American people that our own stockpiles remained strong. Now the wars in Ukraine, Israel, the Red Sea and Iran have exposed the truth: America has been spending missiles like they are bullets, while manufacturing them like they are handmade luxury automobiles. Trump’s promise to “rebuild the military” remains, as of this writing, largely unfulfilled. Posting about it on social media is not the same as actually doing it.

President Trump inherited much of this industrial weakness, that’s is true, but it is also true that he cannot, and will not, escape responsibility for what happens next. His administration has projected overwhelming strength while simultaneously acknowledging that replenishing America’s most valuable weapons will take months and years. You cannot boast that the arsenal is overflowing while urgently requesting tens of billions of dollars to prevent critical shortages. The public rhetoric says America is stronger than ever, but the frantic scramble to reopen plants, expand production and rebuild inventories tells an entirely different story.

The greatest danger is not merely another confrontation with Iran. The nightmare scenario is that America becomes trapped fighting multiple wars while China makes its move against Taiwan. Every Patriot interceptor fired in the Middle East, every Tomahawk launched against Iran and every missile transferred overseas is one less weapon immediately available in the Pacific. You better believe that Beijing is watching the numbers, that Moscow is watching the numbers, and that North Korea is watching the numbers as well. Every enemy of the United States is calculating how long America can fight before its launchers remain loaded but its ammunition bunkers stand empty. And if we are where I think we are on the end times timeline, it’s just about time for them to take their shots.

A modern war between major powers would consume munitions at a rate the American people have never witnessed. The United States could expend years of production in the opening weeks. Once those weapons are gone, money alone cannot instantly replace them. Congress can appropriate another $100 billion overnight, but it cannot manufacture a missile overnight. It cannot instantly create rocket motors, guidance systems, explosives, rare-earth components or trained industrial workers. The weakness is not merely financial—it is physical, industrial and strategic.

America has spent decades financing the image of military supremacy while neglecting the machinery required to sustain it. That illusion is now colliding with reality. The United States remains extraordinarily powerful, but power without endurance is a dangerous deception. A nation that prepares for war through speeches, slogans and televised airstrikes—but not through factories, stockpiles and production capacity—is a nation gambling with its own survival.

The lesson should be unmistakable: America cannot continue attempting to police every conflict, arm every ally and confront every enemy while assuming its arsenal will never reach the bottom. The munitions crisis is not simply a Pentagon bookkeeping problem. It is a warning that the world’s greatest military power may be entering the most dangerous period in generations with fewer arrows in its quiver than its leaders are willing to admit. America right now is in an incredibly tenuous position, and Donald Trump is the one who put us there. World War Trump just might be about to run out of gas and nowhere near the finish line.

Now The End Begins is your front line defense against the rising tide of darkness in the last Days before the Rapture of the Church

When you contribute to this fundraising effort, you are helping us to do what the Lord called us to do. The money you send in goes primarily to the overall daily operations of this site. When people ask for Bibles, we send them out at no charge. When people write in and say how much they would like gospel tracts but cannot afford them, we send them a box at no cost to them for either the tracts or the shipping, no matter where they are in the world. We have a Gospel Billboard program. We are now broadcasting Bible studies, Podcasts and a Sunday Service 5 times a week, thanks to your generous donations. All this is possible because YOU pray for us, YOU support us, and YOU give so we can continue growing.

nteb-free-king-james-bible-program-750-550

But whatever you do, don’t do nothing. Time is short and we need your help right now. The Lord has given us an open door with a tremendous ‘course’ for us to fulfill that will create an excellent experience at the Judgement Seat of Christ. Please pray for our efforts, and if the Lord leads you to donate, be as generous as possible. The war is REAL, the battle HOT and the time is SHORTTO THE FIGHT!!!

“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJB)

“Thank you very much!” – Geoffrey, editor-in-chief, NTEB

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From Sickness And Scarcity To Fresh Water And Hope, Operation Africa! Finishes Kenya Well Project And Watches God Turn Desperate Need Into Lasting Miracle

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Operation Africa! Completes A Life-Changing Well In Kenya, Bringing Clean Water, New Hope And A Powerful Testimony Of God’s Faithfulness To Pastor Dancan’s Children

What began as a burden for children suffering without dependable clean water has now become a finished well, standing in the soil of Kenya as a testimony to answered prayer, faithful giving, and the goodness of God. Those children gathered around it are not looking at concrete and stone; they are looking at life, health, hope, and a future that has been changed because God moved through His people. Pastor Dancan wrote to me this morning and said “the children are shocked at how much life has now changed for the better, something they never could have imagined.” To tell you the truth, I am a little shocked, too, at how quickly the LORD brought all this to come to pass.

“I will open rivers in high places, and fountains in the midst of the valleys: I will make the wilderness a pool of water, and the dry land springs of water.” Isaiah 41:18 (KJB)

Pastor Dancan carried the burden on the ground, Operation Africa! carried the need before NTEB’ers, and the Lord brought everything together in His perfect timing. Every prayer offered, every dollar given, every obstacle overcome, and every foot drilled into the earth became part of a miracle those children will remember for the rest of their lives. Long after the excitement of the project fades, that well will continue giving water day after day, becoming a silent preacher declaring that God sees the forgotten, hears the cries of the needy, and rewards those who act in faith.

This is what we have accomplished together so far. We’ve given them over 1,100 Bibles, enough medicine to heal 81 children of malaria and typdoid, a 10,000 liter permanent water tanked, filled it twice with fresh water, and now a beautiful, amazing, incredible and permanent 60-foot well complete with charcoal filtration system that connects to the water tank. The “cherry on the sundae” was sending them, this morning, 20 wash basins to bathe in and 20 jerrycans for water transport. Thank you all so very much for your prayers and faithful giving, this entire project is now 95% paid for. If you would like to help us get the last 5% in, right around $1,200, please click the donation link below.

If God has prospered you, please take a moment to click on the donate button to help us in this overwhelmingly urgent task of providing the children of Glory Fellowship Orphange with medicine and clean drinking water. We need your prayers, we need your generous financial support, and we need you to stand with us in the closing days of the Church Age. Thank you so very much, TO THE FIGHT!!!


NOTE: If you need a 501 C3 Letter of Donation for tax purposes, please send your donation to:

NTEB Ministries
1340 N Great Neck Rd.
Ste. 1272-129
Virginia Beach, VA 23454.

Now The End Begins is your front line defense against the rising tide of darkness in the last Days before the Rapture of the Church

When you contribute to this fundraising effort, you are helping us to do what the Lord called us to do. The money you send in goes primarily to the overall daily operations of this site. When people ask for Bibles, we send them out at no charge. When people write in and say how much they would like gospel tracts but cannot afford them, we send them a box at no cost to them for either the tracts or the shipping, no matter where they are in the world. We have a Gospel Billboard program. We are now broadcasting Bible studies, Podcasts and a Sunday Service 5 times a week, thanks to your generous donations. All this is possible because YOU pray for us, YOU support us, and YOU give so we can continue growing.

nteb-free-king-james-bible-program-750-550

But whatever you do, don’t do nothing. Time is short and we need your help right now. The Lord has given us an open door with a tremendous ‘course’ for us to fulfill that will create an excellent experience at the Judgement Seat of Christ. Please pray for our efforts, and if the Lord leads you to donate, be as generous as possible. The war is REAL, the battle HOT and the time is SHORTTO THE FIGHT!!!

“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJB)

“Thank you very much!” – Geoffrey, editor-in-chief, NTEB

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